Pagina 1 di 5 1 2 3 ... UltimaUltima
Risultati da 1 a 10 di 41

Discussione: etf Ishares S&P 500

Titolo di riferimento: Isharescores&P500$(dist) Ucits Etf Quotazione al 01/04 09:40 22,712 EUR (-4,75%)
  1. #1

  2. #2
    Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government's $700 billion bank rescue plan won't be enough to revive the finance industry, said investor Marc Faber, who forecast the so-called Black Monday crash in 1987.

    The government should buy out struggling home owners, Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told reporters on the sidelines of an investor conference in Hong Kong. He's also predicting Chinese economic growth to ``disappoint'' and Indian stocks to decline.

    ``The U.S. has many problems,'' Faber said. ``It's a period of hardly any growth in real terms in the economy for several years.''

    The global credit crisis, triggered by a housing slump in the U.S., has saddled financial companies with more than $520 billion in writedowns and losses, collapsing Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in the process.

    House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank told reporters in Washington that House and Senate Democrats have reached a deal on legislation to implement the U.S. Treasury's plan, which will allow it to buy as much as $700 billion in devalued assets to unfreeze credit markets.

    ``I don't believe this is going to be solved in six months to a year,'' Faber said.

    Faber also forecast the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will rally to as high as 1,350 points following the approval of the bailout plan because stocks are ``oversold.'' That level is about 14 percent higher than the gauge's close yesterday.

    `Earnings Bubble'

    Still, ``I'm not playing that rally,'' he said. ``I'd rather think that stocks are not particularly cheap. We don't have a valuation bubble. We have an earnings bubble. In 2009, earnings will disappoint.''

    Faber said he is ``negative'' on China's economic growth, which has slowed for four straight quarters. The economy expanded at 10.1 percent in the second quarter, down from the previous period's 10.6 percent, though still the fastest pace of the world's 20 biggest economies.

    Industrial production grew in July at the weakest pace since February 2007 and manufacturing contracted in August for a second month, according to an official survey, underscoring government concern that an economic slump is possible.

    ``Economies like China that grow very rapidly can have significant adjustments,'' Faber said. ``I'm not negative for the long term. It's just that from a cyclical point of view the Chinese economy could turn out to be weaker than what analysts are telling you.''

    India is also ``not problem-free,'' Faber said. He forecasts the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, will fall below 10,000. The Sensex is down 33 percent this year.

    ``I think new all-time highs in markets are most unlikely for the time being,'' Faber said. ``So I'm not particularly interested to play the market at the present time.''

  3. #3
    10/04/08 - 10:16 AM EDT
    Next week could see some bargain-hunting in stocks as traders look for opportunities within sectors that have been hammered, or those that have potential upside from the government's rescue plan.

    The financial bailout plan was approved Friday, allowing the government to buy up to $700 billion worth of the illiquid assets that have been clogging up banks' balance sheets and operations. Its passage should ease constraints in the nearly frozen credit markets, and may even boost confidence across the board.
    In theory, banks will be able to do business with one another again and should be more willing to lend to consumers and businesses.

    Other sectors that stand to benefit from the bill, called the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, are alternative energy and those heavily vested in research and development. TARP provides major tax breaks for the development of nonfossil-fuel power and other so-called "knowledge-based" programs as part of an effort to steer the economy toward science and technology and away from the industrial and service sectors, where jobs are moving abroad.

    Manny Weintraub, founder and principal of money-management firm Integre Advisors, and former managing director of Neuberger Berman, says there are plenty of opportunities to be found. He notes that investors have hammered away at the embattled financial services sector, as well as highly leveraged utilities, and anything exposed to commodities, whose prices declined on a strengthening dollar and weaker economic outlook.

    "Oversold is one word for it," he says, "but demolished is another word."

    John Rekenthaler, vice president of research at Morningstar, says that the bill's passage may indicate the beginning of the end of the bear market, but he notes that a recovery historically takes twice as long as the downturn.

    "I would hope if the bill passes that we're most of the way through this," he says. "But, there are more 500-point drops than 500-point rises. Panic seems to be a stronger emotion than optimism, or at least it works more quickly."
    With each day seeming to bring news of a snowballing economic decline, the market will continue to price in key concerns about earnings potential in an environment where credit is limited and pricey. GE's downwardly revised earnings guidance last week could be an indication of more warnings to come, says Weintraub. While such announcements will help or hurt individual stocks or sectors, he expects the broad market to be affected mainly by credit conditions.

    "I think the important thing that people are watching are Libor and indications that banks are willing to lend to each other. That's the important thing," says Weintraub, referring to the London Interbank Offered Rate. "How can you expect economic data to be anything but bad?"

    The government jobs report on Friday confirmed what most had guessed -- the economy continued to shed jobs at a rapid pace in September. The government's weekly report on initial jobless claims next Thursday will provide evidence of whether contractions have remained severe so far this month.

    Household names, including consumer goods companies like Hanesbrands and computer-hardware company Hewlett-Packard ), announced big job cuts last month.

    In light of those trends, Rekenthaler predicts that investors will start to look at economic fundamentals and away from the day-to-day turbulence, especially now that the TARP deal has been sealed.

    "I think attention is going to start moving more toward those [indicators] and away from what's going on in D.C.," he says.

    Talk of a cut to the federal funds rate target has ramped up recently as lending costs have risen. The release of minutes on Tuesday from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting could provide insight into how key policymakers plan to respond to the credit crunch, job losses and financial turmoil.

    Brian Dolan, the chief currency strategist at, says the Fed minutes will likely be a "nonevent" in the stock market. He believes Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech on Wednesday will provide a clearer and timelier indication of whether the agency will lower rates at the end of October.

    Dolan predicts that Bernanke "will signal that they're not, which will leave the markets extremely disappointed."

    Weintraub notes, however, that investors have been stunned by unexpected results, from the House turning down the TARP proposal the first time around, to Wells Fargo's
    unexpected offer to buy Wachovia (WB ), knocking out a government-supported deal already in place with Citigroup

    As a result, markets have remained volatile, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging hundreds of points then reversing declines within a single trading session. Weintraub says it's nearly impossible to predict how stocks will fare on a short-term basis if unforeseen news and unexpected calamities continue to drive the market.

    "Any week," says Weintraub, "it's like, 'Will Monday bring a bankruptcy or restructuring?' And is that bad or good? You don't know what Monday will bring until it's Monday."

    Nobody ever made a dime by panicking, says Jim Cramer. Moneymaking opportunities exist despite the market turmoil.

  4. #4
    November 19, 2008

    By Richard Berner (Morgan Stanley) New York

    American consumers are retrenching, and we expect the downturn will be deep, will last until mid-2009, and the following recovery will be tepid. The evidence is grim: We estimate that real spending contracted at a 3.3% annual rate in the summer quarter and will decline at a slightly less-intense 2.4% in the current quarter. One has to go back to the spring of 1980 to find a deeper two-quarter drop. This plunge has arrived with more downward momentum than expected even a few months ago (see “Perfect Storm for the American Consumer” and “The Perfect Storm Returns”, Global Economic Forum, November 12, 2007 and July 7, 2008, respectively).

    Why so dire? Five forces are promoting retrenchment. Consumers might have been able to weather some of them, but collectively, they add up to a perfect storm. First, employment and income are sinking as the economy weakens. The loss of 1.2 million jobs since the beginning of the year already has drained about $70 billion annualized (0.6%) from pretax income, and further job cuts are likely. Indeed, the pace of job loss has accelerated sharply since midyear, with the 77,000 average monthly loss in the first six months more than doubling in the June-October period to 180,000 per month. With jobless claims soaring past the 500,000 mark for the first time since the short-lived spike after 9/11, the pace seems unlikely to abate soon.

    Second and third, equity and home prices are plunging, promoting a record loss in household wealth that is affecting every rung of the income and wealth ladder. The free fall in global equity prices since the beginning of the year – 46% measured by the MSCI all-country composite – has slashed the value of US equity wealth by about $7 trillion. We estimate that the drop in home prices so far – just 6.5% from the peak in the spring of 2007 as measured by the FHFA purchase-only price index – will have sliced $1.5 trillion from the value of household real estate by the end of this year. That decline may understate the loss in housing wealth, because the FHFA measure excludes properties financed with jumbo and subprime mortgages, both of which have declined by more in value. Taken together, such wealth losses probably will prompt consumers to cut spending by about one percentage point this year and more in coming years.

    Fourth, housing foreclosures are rising, threatening to intensify the declines in home prices and the loss in household wealth, and promoting severe disruption among many households. The national foreclosure start rate jumped to 2.75% of all mortgage loans in the second quarter, resulting in about 1.5 million foreclosure starts in inventory, and Federal Reserve economists project a further rise of about 1 million foreclosure starts before leveling off. Not all those starts will result in foreclosures, but unless foreclosure mitigation increases under programs such as the Hope for Homeowners and Hope Now Alliance, this distress will likely weigh on housing values and consumer spending.

    Perhaps most immediately important, the credit crunch has raised the cost and reduced the availability of credit. Credit restraint has increased episodically since the subprime meltdown in February 2007. But the systemic shock from the sudden demise of Lehman Brothers in mid-September created dislocations in funding markets and sharp declines in the values of collateral, taking lender caution to new record levels. That caution has spread from mortgage debt to consumer lending markets, freezing the securitization process for consumer loans. According to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey of bank lending practices, banks are less willing today to extend consumer installment credit than at any time since 1980 – when the Carter Administration briefly imposed credit controls – and the decline in such willingness over the year ended in November is the sharpest of any except in that period.

    It’s hardly surprising that this deeper credit restraint has recently promoted sharp declines in outlays on credit-sensitive, big-ticket items like vehicles, furniture and household appliances and other durables. Indeed, such restraint has been a key ingredient in our perfect storm thesis for the past year. However, a year ago, we were hopeful that policy actions would help avoid a full-blown credit crunch. Now that we are in the midst of one we need to guess its impact and understand what might end it. A recent study by Macroeconomic Advisers sheds light on the impact: Controlling for all the headwinds mentioned above, they find that tighter lending standards alone will cut consumer spending by about 1.5 percentage points in the current quarter, adding to the drag from other factors (see their Banks’ Willingness to Lend and PCE Growth, October 8, 2008). Assuming that the downtrend in willingness to lend has peaked, the drag on spending may have peaked in this quarter, but lender caution likely will persist as the recession deepens and credit quality deteriorates.

    Plummeting energy quotes, additional fiscal stimulus and the eventual benefits of monetary ease likely will avert a deeper downturn. Most immediately, we estimate that if sustained the plunge in gasoline prices alone – from over $4/gallon this summer to today’s $2.45 – will represent the functional equivalent of a $225 billion tax cut for consumers, adding about 2.1 percentage points to disposable income. A lame-duck fiscal stimulus package seems to be on hold at the moment, but more bad economic news may change the picture. And a major stimulus initiative seems inevitable shortly after the Obama Administration takes office. Done right, and coupled with other policies to mitigate the credit crunch and foreclosures, such initiatives should begin to limit the downturn and promote a modest recovery beginning in 2010 (see “The Obama Policy Mix”, Investment Perspectives, November 13, 2008).

    The eventual recovery in consumer spending likely will be moderate. This recession is more than a cyclical event; we think it will trigger a sea change in consumer spending behavior as consumers now embark on a long period of rebuilding thrift. On the asset side, there is further downside risk to both home and equity prices, and even when they trough, a rapid rebound is unlikely. On the liability side, it will take time to deleverage and realign debt service with income. If we’re right that markets recover slowly from these shocks, balance sheet repair will require more saving out of current income and involve real consumer spending growth of no more than 2-2.5% over the next several years, compared with 3.5% over the decade ended in 2007. The golden age of spending for the American consumer has ended, and a new age of thrift likely has begun.

    Corporate America also faces a slow pace of improvement for both assets and liabilities. Leveraged lenders must rebuild their balance sheets with new capital, continue to write off and provision for a significant volume of soured loans, and repay the capital on loan from the Treasury through the TARP. Moreover, regulators will seek to reinforce lender caution and safety by requiring higher minimum capital, thus limiting leverage and reducing credit growth and ROEs for Corporate America. In all, these forces should promote a sober but more sustainable spending backdrop.

  5. #5

  6. #6
    November 20, 2008, 4:55PM EST

    Another day, another new low for the U.S. stock market. Steep losses Thursday pushed major indexes to fresh multi-year lows, with the big-cap benchmark S&P 500 reaching its lowest level since April, 1997. Investors had plenty of news to feed their fears about the health of the economy and the financial sector.

    A midday rally attempt on Thursday fizzled and sellers came out in force once again in late trading after Democratic leaders in Congress said they would delay a vote on whether to bail out the Big Three U.S. automakers until December.

    Another day, another new low for the U.S. stock market. Steep losses Thursday pushed major indexes to fresh multi-year lows, with the big-cap benchmark S&P 500 reaching its lowest level since April, 1997. Investors had plenty of news to feed their fears about the health of the economy and the financial sector.

    A midday rally attempt on Thursday fizzled and sellers came out in force once again in late trading after Democratic leaders in Congress said they would delay a vote on whether to bail out the Big Three U.S. automakers until December.

    S&P technical analyst Chris Burba notes that the sizable U.S. equity losses Thursday were accompanied by a big jump in trading volume. "The heavy volume signals distribution by institutional investors. There isn't any technical evidence to indicate the stock market should stabilize, although the indexes don't have too much further to go before testing technical support at S&P 500 700 and Nasdaq 1253, he wrote in an S&P MarketScope posting.

    "An asset allocation shift is taking place and no time is being wasted doing it," wrote Burba.

  7. #7
    Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Any year-end rally in U.S. stocks is unlikely to snap them out of a bear market, according to Thomas J. Lee, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief U.S. equity strategist.

    As the CHART OF THE DAY shows, Lee expects the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to swing between 720 and 1,125 until mid-2009. The high end of the range matches his forecast, made in October, of the index’s value at the end of this year.

    “A more substantial rally requires underlying economic developments” that have yet to take place, including rebounds in consumer confidence and manufacturing, he wrote in a report today. Stocks are likely to be “range-bound” until then, he added.

    Each bear market since the start of the 20th century has lasted an average of 19 months, the report said, based on a study of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. The current bear market began 13 months ago.

    Stocks may decline for even longer than usual this time because “risk aversion is likely to keep investors sidelined,” Lee wrote. He singled out the 1973-1974 bear market, which lasted 21 months, as a possible parallel.

    Lee’s 720 figure is based on the Dow industrials’ performance between 1929 and 1932, when the average gave back all its gains from the preceding bull market and dropped another 7 percent before hitting bottom.
    Last Updated: November 24, 2008 10:56 EST

  8. #8
    Per l' indice S&P 500 si è conclusa la settimana più positiva dal 1974

    Wall Street ha chiuso la breve seduta di oggi in rialzo. Il Dow Jones ha guadagnato l'1,2%, l'S&P 500 l'1% e il Nasdaq Composite lo 0,2%. Per il Dow Jones e l'S&P 500 si è trattato della quinta seduta positiva di fila. Durante l'intera settimana il Dow Jones ha guadagnato il 9,7%, l'S&P 500 il 12% e il Nasdaq Composite l'11%. Per l'S&P 500 si è trattato della migliore ottava dal 1974. Il bilancio dell'intero mese è stato però negativo. A novembre il Dow Jones ha perso il 5,3%, l'S&P 500 il 7,4% e il Nasdaq Composite il 10,8%.
    L'odierna seduta è stata molto tranquilla.

    “It’s going to be a really tough Christmas shopping season, but a lot of this is built into the stocks, and there is huge stimulus coming down the pipeline,” Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at Ridgeworth Capital Management in Richmond, Virginia, said on Bloomberg Television. “We are cautiously bullish.” Ridgeworth manages $70 billion.

  9. #9
    BlackRock's Doll Sees Stocks in `Bottoming Process': Video

    Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Doll, chief investment officer of global equities at BlackRock Inc., which oversees $1.3 trillion, talks with Bloomberg's Matt Miller about the outlook for the U.S. equity market.'s%20Doll%20Sees%20Stocks% 20in%20%60Bottoming%20Process'&clipSRC=mms://

  10. #10
    December 4, 2008

    A New York Times article from August pointed out that bearish sentiment, as measured by the Conference Board, had hit an all-time high. Fully 55% of the people questioned in July expected the stock market to decline over the next 12 months. Fast-forward to a repeat of that question in October, and not much had changed.

    Why is this important today? Because each time bearish sentiment has exceeded 35% over the past 21 years, the market has confounded that sentiment by gaining ground over the following year, at an average pace of 20.5%.

    I love pessimism
    Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but take another look at that quote above. And then read this one, also from Warren Buffett, from his 1990 letter to shareholders:

    The most common cause of low prices is pessimism -- some times pervasive, some times specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It's optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.

    Were you one of those who checked the table above when I told you the date of that quote? The man knows what he's talking about.

    You demand proof? In October 1990, just as bearish sentiment was peaking at 48%, Buffett revealed that he had upped his position in Wells Fargo to just shy of 10% of the company. In the following 12 months, while the market returned a "mere" 29%, that one investment returned 123%. In the five years following that bearish peak, it returned 290%, or 31.3% on average per year! And that doesn't even include the dividends. He still owns about 7.8% of the company.

    Here's a more recent example
    The last time bearish sentiment peaked, in the spring of 2003, it reached 47%. However, if you had been greedy instead of fearful, you could have picked up shares in the following fairly prominent, well-capitalized companies and gotten some outstanding returns.
    Price change, March 31, 2003 - March 31, 2008: Monsanto (nyse: MON) + 1260%
    Price change, March 31, 2003 - March 31, 2008:Coach (NYSE: COH) + 215%

    At Motley Fool Stock Advisor, we believe today's market has knocked some great companies down to attractive prices.


Permessi di Scrittura

  • Tu non puoi inviare nuove discussioni
  • Tu non puoi inviare risposte
  • Tu non puoi inviare allegati
  • Tu non puoi modificare i tuoi messaggi