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Discussione: E’ ora di tornare sui listini?

Titolo di riferimento: Lyxor Ucits Etf Dj Global Titans 50 Quotazione al 24/02 0,000 EUR (0%)
  1. #1
    I principali indici accumulano ribassi ad un anno compresi tra il 40% e il 50% e Warren Buffett ha suonato la carica per i coraggiosi. Ma a che punto siamo?

    Lo scorso 10 ottobre sono stati toccati i minimi da diversi anni per alcuni dei principali indici azionari. Giovedì 16 ottobre il mercato azionario ha virato nuovamente al ribasso. I movimenti sono stati accompagnati da livelli di volatilità straordinariamente elevati. La volatilità è talmente elevata che l’investitore può trovarsi in territorio positivo o negativo nell’arco della stessa giornata. In siffatto contesto, sono pochi i risparmiatori che prendono seriamente in considerazione l’investimento in azioni.

    Non c’è dubbio che la storia dimostra che l’ingresso nei mercati azionari in momenti di panico elevato sia stato premiante, tuttavia, i timori per un ulteriore tracollo del mercato finanziario sembrano essere ancora sufficientemente elevati da tenere alla larga gli investitori retail. D’altronde, i continui paragoni con il crollo del 1929 hanno riportato l’attenzione sull’entità delle perdite subite in quell’occasione dall’indice Dow Jones Industrial (-87%).

    Non vi alcun dubbio sul fatto che la comparazione non regga in questi momenti, dato che tanto la risposta delle autorità che lo stato di salute delle economie sono molto più favorevoli rispetto ad allora. Questa crisi somiglia molto di più ad altre crisi classiche come quelle verificatesi negli anni settanta o nei primi anni novanta, anche se bisogna riconoscere che i problemi accumulati dal settore bancario e finanziario presentano un livello di gravità molto elevato. Nelle crisi degli anni settanta e dei primi anni novanta era abituale assistere ad un dimezzamento delle quotazioni degli indici azionari.

    Da ottobre 2007 ad oggi il Dow Jones Industrial ha lasciato sul terreno quasi il 40% e il Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 il 45%. Nello stesso periodo, il Nikkei 225 ha accumulato una perdita del 50%. Per gli indici settoriali coinvolti nel cuore della crisi, gli emergenti e quelli specializzati sui listini di singoli paesi, le perdite sono andate ben oltre la soglia del 50%. Anche se individuare con certezza quale sia il fondo è un compito impossibile, è possibile affermare che, salvo disastri poco probabili in virtù della determinazione dimostrata dai governi, non dovremmo trovarci poco distanti dai minimi.

    Anche la prospettiva storica ci dice che il rimbalzo dai minimi potrebbe essere considerevole e probabilmente caratterizzato da movimenti violenti, ragion per cui il prolungamento eccessivo dell’attesa del ‘momento giusto’ in cui rientrare nell’investimento azionario, potrebbe far perdere buona parte del rialzo. Le reazioni esagerate dei mercati sono un dato di fatto incontestabile, ma quel che conta nel mondo degli investimenti è ottenere buoni prezzi medi di acquisto e vendita. In tutti i casi, se il rimbalzo appare cosa probabile, meno certo è l’inizio di una lunga fase rialzista. Gli eccessi degli ultimi quindici anni e la debolezza della vera benzina dei listini (il credito) continueranno ancora a condizionare la vita dei listini.
    A cura di Rocki Gialanella

    http://www.fondionline.it/indicecms....rt&idart=18951

  2. #2
    ``We have probably seen the bottom of the market,'' said Christian Dargnat, chief investment officer of BNP Paribas Asset Management, who helps oversee about $446 billion in Paris. ``The authorities have taken the right steps. The measures are going in a good direction to solve the problems of liquidity and solvency.''

    ING Groep NV rallied 22 percent after receiving a 10 billion-euro ($13.4 billion) lifeline from the Dutch government.
    Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA gained more than 5 percent as crude rose for a second day. Prudential Plc climbed 13 percent on a report the U.K.'s second-biggest insurer is in advanced talks to sell a stake.
    BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, added 3.5 percent to 927 pence and Rio Tinto Group, the third- biggest, climbed 5.7 percent to 2,379 pence. Copper rallied 2.4 percent in London.
    Last Updated: October 20, 2008 05:29 EDT

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...cao&refer=home

    http://www.etf.it/quotes/details.php...ype=BASKET#sub

  3. #3
    Oct 23, 2008
    Resisting market pessimism
    Despite all the support measures for the financial sector, a recession in a lot of western countries is inevitable. Nevertheless, the extreme situation on financial markets creates opportunities for investors who are able to live through these volatile times.

    The risk of a systemic failure of the global banking sector has risen to it highest level since the 1930's. Financial markets are failing to such an extent that unprecedented government action is needed to get them and the real economy going again.

    Policy makers show decisiveness
    In the US, the USD 700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program of Treasury Secretary Paulson was initially received with scepticism. The plan to spend USD 250 billion of the program to inject fresh capital in the major US banks could count on more enthusiasm. European leaders showed a harmony example by reserving hundreds of billions of euros to provide troubled banks with capital and guarantees on interbank loans. For example, Germany said that it would issue up to EUR 400 billion in credit guarantees for interbank lending and set aside a EUR 100 billion fund to inject capital in financial institutions and acquire illiquid assets. Furthermore, the major central banks of the world in coordinated fashion eased monetary policy on October 8. Almost unlimited liquidity support by the major Central Banks is also an important ingredient for greasing the wheels of the money markets.

    Policy interventions will be effective
    Our base case is that policy action will work. The Paulson plan will be implemented in a way that capital is injected into the US banking system. European governments will continue to act to support the Eurozone banking system. Central Banks will move in more coordinated fashion to easy policy further. Moreover, credit supply of central banks or governments outside of the commercial banking system will be further explored to keep the real economy going.

    Recovery from 2009 onwards
    This will not prevent a synchronized down-turn in the developed economies during the second half of the year, but prevent a tailspin. We expect the economies of the major industrialised countries (G7) have slipped into recession in the third quarter of this year. This recession could last until the first quarter of 2009. Furthermore, the deflationary impact from the downturn will allow for further monetary easing; this effect will be strengthened due to weak commodity prices which are likely to fall further. This is not good news for commodity exporting countries but comes as a welcome relief for the developed world as inflationary pressures will diminish. From 2009 onwards a gradual, but unusually modest recovery will materialise. Only by late 2009 or early 2010 will global growth return to potential.

    Good opportunities in the medium and long term
    By many measures recent market dynamics have really been unprecedented and have resulted in extreme market dislocations. As a result, a lot of risk is still around in markets and uncertainty rules in the short-term. However, we remain convinced that policy makers will do whatever it takes to solve the current problems in the financial system. Consequently a lot of opportunities are currently created in the market. Valuations are at extreme levels, in equities as well as in credits, and price in a darker scenario than we expect. Only investors that are able to take a more long-term perspective and be able to live through volatile times can however benefit from this. All in all, a constructive medium-term investment outlook is justified, as long as the focus remains on strong valuation, cash flow transparency and balance sheet strength of the underlying assets.

    http://www.ingim.com/EU/MarketCommen...ive/IWG_016418

  4. #4
    Secondo lo stratega azionario di Nomura i mercati dovrebbero prossimamente dare segni di aver toccato il fondo

    View of the Day: Stocks to bottom soon
    By Ian Scott

    Published: October 27 2008 16:34 | Last updated: October 27 2008 16:34

    Stock markets should show signs of bottoming out soon, given the robust response of governments and central banks to the financial crisis, believes Ian Scott, equity strategist at Nomura.

    He says with markets behaving as they are, rationalising such extreme movements with economic or corporate fundamentals is virtually impossible.

    “While it is always theoretically possible to invent an economic scenario to justify current prices, the scenario that would now be required necessitates policy failure on a scale not seen since the 1930s.

    “Yet it is hard to imagine a more committed policy response than the one we have had, and there are now some tentative signs that it is having an impact. Stocks should bottom soon.”

    Mr Scott argues that with inflation absent, interest rates are set to come down sharply. “Although we would bias away from leveraged companies, we would overweight rate-sensitive sectors.

    “Indeed, there is a stark contrast between early-cycle cyclicals – where earnings estimates have been cut, valuations are low and rate cuts will be a benefit – and late-cycle industrials where earnings estimates have barely budged and valuations are high, and which tend to underperform when rates come down.

    “We suggest biasing portfolios in favour of media, retail, real estate and technology and away from capital goods, construction and building materials, leisure, steel and consumer staples.”

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d81328c-a...077b07658.html

  5. #5
    Brutte, sinistre prospettive per l' economia mondiale, almeno fino a metà 2009:

    Global Economic Forum

    By Joachim Fels | London
    November 20, 2008
    Our base case for the global economy remains pretty grim. We think that this first synchronised recession in the advanced economies in more than 50 years will last at least until mid-2009, and emerging economies are slowing very sharply, too. Headline inflation is likely to turn negative in the US and in the UK (on the RPI measure) next year and looks set to fall below target in the euro area. However, we continue to look for an anaemic recovery to set in during 2H09 and 2010, and we do not believe that we will see a multi-year period of deflation

    Yet, bearish investors are increasingly questioning our base case. Comparisons with Japan’s ‘lost decade’ of the 1990s or even the Great Depression of the 1930s have become quite popular. Given the size of the shock to the financial sector and the recent sharp deterioration of economic indicators, this is understandable. However, there are a few important reasons why we think that things will turn out to be neither as bad as in the Great Depression nor in the milder version of a depression that played out in Japan in the 1990s.

    Three policy mistakes in the Great Depression. The Great Depression started out with a bursting asset bubble after a period of easy credit and irrational exuberance in the late 1920s that led to a recession. So much for the parallels. What turned the recession into a depression, however, with the US unemployment rate rising to 25%, was largely three major policy mistakes:

    • First, the Fed (and other central banks) stood by watching as one bank after another collapsed, and allowed a major contraction of the money supply.

    • Second, fiscal policy was passive as governments tried to adhere to the balanced budget doctrine. Falling tax receipts thus led to cuts in government spending, aggravating the downturn in private sector demand. This only ended when Franklin Roosevelt took office as US President in 1933 and created the New Deal.

    • Third, starting with the US Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930, a trade war began between the US and Europe, with governments raising import tariffs and thus choking off world trade.

    Today, policymakers are acting very differently, thanks to the lessons drawn from the Great Depression. Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the regulators have made it clear that no systematically important banks will be allowed to fail. Central banks have resorted to major monetary easing, consisting of a combination of much lower official rates and massive quantitative easing (see David Greenlaw’s piece that follows). Governments around the world are busy devising and enacting large fiscal stimulus packages. And, it appears unlikely that the world will see another trade war. So, the reason why another Great Depression is unlikely is that today’s policymakers understand what went wrong back then and are eager not to repeat the mistakes of their predecessors.

    Also, a Japanese-type scenario is unlikely. If this is not the Great Depression, could it turn out to be Japan’s milder version of the 1990s? After all, Japanese policymakers had the advantage of having studied the Great Depression and still ended up with a ‘lost decade’ of recurring recessions and (mild) deflation. Again, we think it is different this time, mainly because policymakers in the US and Europe are doing already now, and in size, all the things that Japan did in a staggered fashion and partly with long delays:

    • After the equity and real estate bubble burst in 1989-90 and the economy entered recession, for many years banks were allowed to carry bad loans on their books without having to write them down.

    • The government only started to inject capital into banks in 1997, seven years into the lost decade.

    • Fiscal policy was stimulative, but the direct impact on effective demand was relatively small (less than 1% of GDP in most years), according to our Japan team.

    • The Bank of Japan only resorted to quantitative easing (QE) in 2001, more than 10 years after the crisis started.

    By contrast, US and European banks over the past year have been busy writing down bad assets, governments have started to recapitalise banks, major fiscal stimulus is on its way and central banks are not only cutting interest rates but have started QE. The monetary base (consisting of cash in circulation and banks’ reserves at the central bank) is currently growing at rates of 30-40% in the US, the euro area and the UK, and thus faster than in Japan in summer 2001 when the Bank of Japan started QE. And importantly, as David Greenlaw explains in the note that follows, M1 growth (cash and sight deposits held by the public) has been surging in the US recently. We take this as an early sign that the monetary policy transmission process is starting to work again.

    Bottom Line

    Again, it is important to emphasise that the G3 are in a severe recession that will last at least until mid-2009, possibly longer, and headline inflation will likely become negative at some stage next year in the US and Japan and drop below target in the euro area. However, the early and massive policy reaction will, in our view, prevent a replay of Japan in the 1990s or, worse, another Great Depression.
    Important Disclosure Information at the end of this Forum

    http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html

  6. #6
    21 Nov 2008


    Analisi settimanale sui mercati di Blackrock

    .....

    Prospettive

    Guardando al futuro, prevediamo che il contesto macroeconomico e le notizie provenienti dal mondo corporate si confermeranno poco confortanti, anche per i prossimi due trimestri. Dovremmo altresì assistere a una risposta più aggressiva da parte dei governi alla congiuntura economica negativa (con tagli dei tassi e altri stimoli fiscali). Nel frattempo, le classi di attivo più rischiose (azioni e credito) si mantengono su valutazioni interessanti. Ciò però non è sufficiente in sè a innescare una svolta positiva dei mercati, mancando un catalizzatore in grado di sbloccare il valore. A nostro parere, questo catalizzatore potrebbe essere rappresentato da una maggior consapevolezza dell’entità della crisi economica e del suo impatto sugli utili societari. Ma perchè questo si manifesti crediamo che si debba attendere il 2009.

    http://www.fondionline.it/indicecms....rt&idart=19623

  7. #7
    Va beh, che problema c'è? Attendiamo il 2009...:) ...nel frattempo, prudenza e pensiamo alla salute, che è la cosa più importante....bye

  8. #8

  9. #9
    Feb 20, 2009
    ING Inv. Man. :

    "Monthly Investment Newsletter
    For the US and Eurozone we now forecast an economic contraction in 2009 of 1.9% and even 4% for Japan. There’s no doubt that emerging economies are in a severe economic downturn too.

    For the first time since 1945 we have to deal with a severe recession in all regions simultaneously. The situation is complicated, as the recession originated from decreasing US house prices and a spreading credit crisis.

    Such a recession is deeper than a ‘normal’ one. (According to the IMF, a normal recession lasts nearly 4 quarters, showing a contraction of 2-3%).

    Disinflation (lower inflation, not deflation!) and deleveraging will be with us for some time. Furthermore, the systemic risk and confidence crisis have not yet disappeared.

    Negative wealth and income effects in the US (and UK) are enormous and cannot easily be understated. Thus, a recovery will be slow.

    In the current situation the transmission mechanism (time between implementation and effect of central bank and government actions) is longer than usual.

    Therefore, traction is what investors want to see. Announcement of stimulus plans is not enough; materialization and visibility of plans in the economy is important.

    Volatility will continue for the time being. In the meantime, bear market rallies will evolve from time to time. It’s too early for a sustained upward move.

    Equity markets could have seen their bottom already. However, a test of November 2008 lows cannot be excluded.

    In our Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), we are neutrally positioned equities versus fixed income.

    In coming months, we shall take an opportunistic stance, looking for short-term possibilities to add value. If according to our views (and models) possibilities arise, we’ll rather take small bets than large ones.

    To view the complete story, click the “Download” button above :

    http://www.ingim.com/EU/MarketCommen...ive/IWG_019720

  10. #10
    March 16 2009 18:14
    ...
    Barclays offered a boost to banking stocks after it said that it had made a strong start to 2009 – echoing comments from leading US banks last week – and was in talks to sell part of its fund management division.

    Meanwhile, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the US recession should end this year and the economy would expand in 2010 if the government succeeds in stabilising the financial system.

    The G20 meeting saw finance ministers promise to take all necessary actions to ensure financial stability and maintain expansionary monetary policy as long as needed.

    “It is extremely positive that the G20 statement recognises that restoring lending is the ‘key priority’, to be pursued via continued liquidity support, recapitalisations, and a solution to the toxic assets problem,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit.

    ....“Observers still seem to be split between two camps – those who think we have simply witnessed another short-covering rally and those who see evidence that the cyclical downside momentum has slowed and policy stimulus is finally starting to affect the real economy,” said Thomas Stolper, analyst at Goldman Sachs.

    David Shairp, global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, was sceptical. “This bounce looks to be a triumph of hope over experience,” he said.

    “Our sense is there could still be a further – final – leg down before equities bottom and we would not chase the current rally, preferring to be neutral stocks versus bonds.”

    But Marek Sasura at Barclays Capital said: “We think that the rally in equities will continue in the coming weeks, supported by other positive signs, like an uptrend in commodities
    ...
    Government bondscontinued to retreat in the face of the strength in equity markets. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury was up 6bp at 2.95 per cent, while the 10-year German Bund yield rose 10bp to 3.15 per cent and the 10-year UK Gilt added 9bp to 3.03 per cent.

    On the currency markets, the euro struck a five-week high above $1.30 as improving risk appetite continued to erode the dollar’s haven status.

    But Steve Barrow, currency strategist at Standard Bank, said he did not view this as the start of a longer-term slide in the greenback.

    “Financial stocks may be turning the corner but the G10 economy still faces massive headwinds as growth continues to slump, unemployment soars and bankruptcies surge,” he said.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a2f0be0a-1...nclick_check=1

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