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Discussione: etf Ishares S&P 500

Titolo di riferimento: Isharescores&P500$(dist) Ucits Etf Quotazione al 30/03 14:25 23,038 EUR (0,57%)
  1. #21
    02.23.09, 12:15 PM EST

    BMO Portfolio Strategy on Monday cut its target on the S&P 500 to 950 because of weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, as well as a deterioration in its outlook for bank loan losses and energy prices.

    The firm also cut its 2009 operating earnings outlook for the S&P 500 to $57 from $59.

    Despite that, the firm wrote that its earnings outlook suggested that stocks were at or close to a bottom, 'with a recovery likely over the next year.'

  2. #22
    Goldman Sachs' top U.S. strategist Kostin Cuts 2009 S&P 500 Forecast to 940
    “We have seen some progress with regard to two critical signposts on the way to a sustained rally: passage of a fiscal stimulus plan and some clarity surrounding the Financial Stability Plan,” the strategy team wrote. “However, we have yet to see any improvement in two other key signposts: home price stabilization and declines in financials’ losses.”

    Profits in the S&P 500 may this year amount to $40 per share, down from a previous prediction of $53, the strategists wrote. They cut a 2010 per-share profit estimate to $63 from $69.
    February 26, 2009 07:49 EST

  3. #23
    Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:43pm GMT

    Goldman Sachs on Thursday lowered its year-end price target on the S&P 500 .SPX to 940, a level that still represents upside of 22 percent. However, the firm has a near-term target of 650, a level that represents downside of 15 percent.

    "Peak-to-trough, we expect S&P 500 operating earnings to fall 56 percent, the third-worst fall in corporate earnings over the past 100 years. Excluding provisions and write-downs, we forecast $63 in 2009 and $71 in 2010," the firm wrote.

    Goldman said it was remaining defensive on the index, and that it expects the market to remain within a trading range around 750, "but see risks skewed to the downside in the near-term."

  4. #24
    7:34 p.m. EST March 1, 2009
    M. Hulbert
    ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Judging by a market-timing indicator I created two decades ago, the bear market may very well be nearing its end.
    I call this indicator the Market Timing Popularity Indicator, and it measures where advisers stand between the two extremes of buy-and-hold and market timing. It's based on the historical tendency for buy-and-hold to reach its peak of popularity at market tops, just as market timing becomes most out of favor.
    The inverse tends to be the case when the market bottoms. And these days, it's hard to find any defenders of buy-and-hold investing.
    As recently as early last October, in contrast, I had no trouble finding many defenders of buying and holding among the investment newsletters I track. As a result, I concluded at the time that the bear market was not yet likely over. ( Read my Oct. 10 column.)
    Not so today.
    Consider a mass-emailed newsletter advertisement that I received last Thursday evening. Its headline read, "Buy & Hold, RIP."
    Though that's just one data point, it's a telling one. Newsletter advertisers are very shrewd judges of the prevailing mood among investors, and they're not going to use any ploy that doesn't deeply resonate with potential subscribers.
    Furthermore, I can independently verify that the number of newsletter editors who believe in buying and holding has shrunk in recent months. And among those who do, they're more likely to talk about their beliefs sotto voce rather than yell about it from the mountaintops.
    So I consider this advertisement's headline from last Thursday to be a significant straw in the wind about the consensus views among investors.
    To be sure, it's difficult, if not impossible, to measure comprehensively and objectively the popularity of buying and holding. For that and other reasons, the Market Timing Popularity Indicator can't be used to pinpoint precise market turning points. Applying it is at best an art rather than a science.
    That said, however, the indicator did do a decent job of indicating the end of the last bear market. Just a few days prior to the ensuing bull market taking off, one of the newsletter arena's staunchest supporters of buying and holding declared that he had changed his mind and that he now believed it was essential to be a market timer. My column reporting this change of heart appeared on March 11, 2003, the exact day of the successful retest of the market's bear market low.

  5. #25
    Joy Says U.S. Economy to Recover in Second Half of 2009: Video
    March 6 (Bloomberg) -- David Joy, chief market strategist at RiverSource Investments LLC, talks with Bloomberg's

  6. #26
    March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The stock market sell-off that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down 57 percent in 17 months will end by May after the benchmark falls as much as 11 percent more, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

    Michael Krauss, the firm’s chief technical strategist, said the S&P 500 will fall to 650 points “within days,” a 3.9 percent drop from yesterday’s close. It will then rally for two to three weeks, gaining as much as 18 percent to 765, before dropping to a range of 650 to 600 by May. Technical analysts make predictions based on patterns in price charts and market data.

    Krauss expects “a significant percentage rally” in the second half that could lift the benchmark by as much as 67 percent from its bottom to 1,000 by Dec. 31. That would give the index, off to its worst annual start ever following a 25 percent plunge, an 11 percent gain for 2009.

    He also uses the wave principle, a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. Elliott concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.

  7. #27
    Mar. 3, 2009,

    Doug Kass called the bottom on Kudlow last night (in video below at 5:06 marker). (Kudlow, of course, has been calling the bottom every day for the last 18 months, so we hope this isn't a jinx.)

    From my perch, the feature of the show was my call that the U.S. stock market could make a 2009 low this week, a very tough call, but it is a position I have been edging toward over the past several days.

    The lion's share of last segment of "The Kudlow Report" was devoted to my analysis of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), and my market bottom call is made near the end of the segment.

    My contention, as discussed on last night's show, is that the serious problems have been more than fully discounted in the world's equity markets. Moreover, while many have grown increasingly impatient with the new Administration's piecemeal strategy toward addressing the banking industry's toxic assets, a cohesive deal, under the leadership of Lawrence Summers, will soon be forthcoming and will be effective.

    The investment pyramid consists of the three angles of fundamentals, sentiment and valuation. I made this market bottom call based on my expectation of an early 2010 stabilization in the economy (making the 27-month recession the second-longest in history) coupled with an extreme sentiment and valuation swing. (As Dennis Gartman is fond of saying, sentiment and valuation have moved from the top left of the chart to the bottom right of the chart in an historic fashion.)

    I am fully cognizant of the magnitude of our economic and credit challenges and that the future is not what it used to be. Indeed, my expectation of The Great Decession, which is somewhere between a garden variety recession and The Great Depression, remains intact and is my baseline expectation...

    Two to three years ago, I had a variant view, and I made a bearish call on equities at a time when (prima facie) all appeared healthy. While I clearly saw the developing cracks in the foundations of credit, in the economy and in the world's stock markets, the media, investment strategists, mutual fund and hedge fund managers wore rose-colored glasses as they were almost universally bullish. Today, most of the same group, many of whom have been destroyed by the bear market, can see no light at the end of the tunnel, and frankly, this bolsters my confidence in the call....

  8. #28
    0820 ET 16March2009

    Wachovia : earnings outlook for the S&P 500 for 2009

    The firm forecast earnings of $52 a share in 2009 and $64 in 2010

  9. #29
    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 17 percent ascent from March 9 through yesterday exceeded any advance by the main benchmark for American equities over a seven-day period since 1939, an indication to technical analysts that the rally may stall.

    The S&P 500 rose in six of the past seven days, beginning with a 6.4 percent rebound from a 12-year low on March 10, its biggest daily gain since November. Banks led the advance after JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. said they made money in January and February. Still down 13 percent in 2009 amid the worst recession in 24 years, the index climbed to a one-month high yesterday on the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy $1 trillion of bonds to cut borrowing costs.

    “There’s a heck of a lot of power behind it, which is good intermediate term, but it also means you could be getting to a short-term exhaustion,” John Schlitz, chief market technician at Instinet in New York, said of the rally. Technical analysts make predictions based on price and volume charts. Instinet, owned by Japan’s Nomura Holdings Inc., is a brokerage that handles about 5 percent of U.S. equity trading.

    By another measure, the S&P 500’s advance was the steepest since 1938, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. When the benchmark fell to 682.55 on March 5, it was 14.6 percent below its average over the previous 30 days. Yesterday’s close of 794.35 was 3.3 percent above the 30-day average. The 17.9 percentage point jump in nine trading days was last exceeded by an 18.1 percentage point swing in June 1938.

    Among the so-called resistance points is the benchmark’s average over the past 50 days, at about 801. The 806 level marks the midpoint of the market’s 28 percent drop from Jan. 6 to March 9. Also, a line drawn through the closing highs for January and February intersects today’s date at around 800.

    “This is a unique market with enough power and outside influences behind it that you wouldn’t want to short it, unless you’re very, very short term,”
    March 19, 2009 12:49 EDT

  10. #30
    JPM prevede utili 2008 di $57 , e di $76 per il 2009 per le azioni che sommate compongono l' indice S&P500.
    Obbiettivo 1100 entro fine 2009 per l' indice S&P500.

    Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:10pm GMT

    The firm forecast 2009 earnings of $57 a share and earnings of $76 a share
    in 2010, compared with previous estimates of $65 a share and $80 a share.

    JP Morgan believes that more constructive equity market environment will develop in H2 with year-end S&P 500 target of 1100


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