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Discussione: etf Ishares S&P 500

Titolo di riferimento: Isharescores&P500$(dist) Ucits Etf Quotazione al 17/01 17:29 29,834 EUR (0,84%)
  1. #11
    What the Trader Is Expecting in the Coming Week: Will Sentiment Headwinds Challenge Key Market Support?
    By Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research
    12/8/2008 7:00 AM

    The S&P 500 Index's (SPX) weekly close above the important 850 level and the S&P 100 Index's (OEX) weekly close above 400 kept the bulls on life support heading into this week's trading.

    The 850 area on the SPX has established itself as an important region of support following the break below the critical 160-month moving average in the first week of October. Why are we viewing 850 as significant? First, this area marked the lower rail of the index's trading range during the final 3 weeks of October. Moreover, despite considerable of song and dance around the 850 level since October 10 (the date this support was first tested), the SPX has logged only 6 closes below this level during this time frame. Friday, October 10, by the way, was the day that the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) traded at its greatest premium to the SPX's 20-day historical volatility since the break of the latter's 160-month trendline. It remains to be seen whether this premium is significant enough to mark a fear-based bottom.


    So, while the broad market finds itself trading just above major support as we enter the new trading week, there are potential headwinds. Specifically, the SPX's 900 century level resides slightly above the index's close on Friday, and its 50-day moving average is declining quickly. This trendline comes into the week sitting at 929.64, down from 964.57 the previous week. Moreover, the VIX comes into the week at 59.93, significantly below the SPX's 20-day historical volatility of 74.00. During the past few months, the market's best short-term rallies have occurred when the VIX is trading at a premium to the 20-day historical volatility of the SPX.

    We continue to favor homebuilding stocks, and select financial stocks, such as Wells Fargo (WFC) and M&T Bank Corporation (MTB).

  2. #12
    Secondo L. Birinyi per gli investitori è ormai tempo di uscire dalla mentalità da bunker.
    Un mercato toro sarebbe in formazione.

    Birinyi Says Investors Should Lose ‘Bunker Mentality’

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reached a bear market bottom more than two weeks ago and investors should begin buying the largest U.S. stocks, according to Laszlo Birinyi, who predicted the rout in financial shares.

    “I’m very comfortable saying the market has made the bottom,” Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates Inc. in Westport, Connecticut, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “It’s time to get out of the bunker mentality. A bull market is forming. It’s just not going to be any outsized gains over the next three to six months. With all the concerns and issues around the world, I’d be hesitant about being very, very aggressive.”

    The S&P 500 fell 52 percent from its October 2007 record to 752.44 on Nov. 20. Financial shares lost three quarters of their value, dragged down by almost $1 trillion in losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. The benchmark for American equity today added 22.13, or 2.5 percent, to 898.2 at 10:02 a.m. New York time.

    Birinyi said he bought shares of General Electric Co. because the company has pledged to keep its dividend. Birinyi also said Dow Chemical Co.’s payout makes the company attractive and Apple Inc. is “good for a trade” because its sell-off was overdone.

    “The wind is at the back of the large caps,” Birinyi said, adding that financial stocks may rise over the longer term because they “have been strong here and we’ve been too quick to dismiss them all as tainted.”

    Birinyi worked more than 10 years on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers Inc. before starting his research and money management firm in 1989. He is known for pioneering money-flow analysis, which compares the dollar amounts moving into or out of a stock or index to establish whether it is being more aggressively bought or sold.

    Birinyi in an October 2007 interview said any recovery in financial stocks would be snuffed out as bad loans and lower revenue from underwriting reduce earnings.

    To contact the reporters on this story: Betty Liu in New York at [email protected]; Eric Martin in New York at [email protected]

    Last Updated: December 8, 2008 10:05 EST

    Il crollo dell'azionario Usa, che ha affossato l'indice Standard & Poor's 500 del 49 percento, spingendolo ai minimi in undici anni il mese scorso, è finito. Lo ha detto Laszlo Birinyi, che aveva previsto la crisi dei titoli finanziari.


  3. #13
    Con il rialzo di ieri dell' S&P500 in chiusura il mercato Orso durato 13 mesi, dal punto di vista tecnico, è finito ed è inziato un mercato toro (bull market). Infatti l' S&P500 è salito di più del 20% dal minimo (52Wk Low: 741.02 ) chiudendo a 909,7

    Today’s gains put a technical end to the 13-month bear market that began after the S&P 500 reached a record close of 1,565.15. An advance of more than 20 percent from a low is the standard definition of a bull market.

    December 8, 2008 19:46 EST

  4. #14
    Secondo uno studioso il mercato orso secolare per l' S&P500 potrebbe finire nel 2014, ma nell' arco dei prossimi 2 anni dovrebbe esserci un mercato toro intermedio, un mercato rialzista provocato dalle politiche espansive attuate dalle autorità monetarie.

    Before the trough in 2014, investors are likely to see a so-called bear market rally for the next two years as central bank actions delay the onset of deflation, Napier said.

    Bear-Market Scholar

    Napier, who teaches at Edinburgh Business School, based his S&P 500 forecast on the Q for U.S. equities as well as the 10- year cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, another measure of long-term value.

    The S&P may plunge another 55 percent to a trough of 400 by 2014, the strategist said.

    “Things have always looked absolutely terrible at the bottom,” said Napier, Institutional Investor’s top-ranked Asia strategist from 1997-1999. With deflation “the value of assets falls and the value of debt stays up, then equity gets crushed. The results are always horrific.”

    At the end of the four largest U.S. bear markets in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, the Q ratio fell to 0.3 or lower, and history is likely to repeat, said Napier. From the 1982 trough, the S&P 500 grew more than 14-fold to the middle of 2000, when Napier says the last bull market ended.

    The Q ratio on U.S. equities has dropped to 0.7 from a peak of 2.9 in 1999, and reaching 0.3 has always signaled the end of a bear market, said Napier, the author of “Anatomy of the Bear,” a study of how business cycles change course. The Q ratio for U.S. equities has fluctuated between 0.3 and 3 in the past 130 years.

    When the gauge is more than one, it indicates the market is overvaluing company assets, while a Q ratio of less than one signifies shares are undervalued because it is cheaper to buy companies than to build them from the ground up.

    Quantitative Easing

    Measures such as Tobin’s Q ratio and a 10-year price-to- earnings ratio are “valuable tools,” said Andrew Milligan, the Edinburgh-based head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments, which oversees about $190 billion. Milligan said he is bullish on U.S. equities for now as central bank efforts to fight deflation will push the market higher.

    “For those who are worried about losing much of their investment almost overnight, very clearly you’d want to wait for those signals to give a much stronger case,” he said. The bear market will have “a painful resolution, it’s just a question of how painful, over what period of time and for what parties.”

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s indication that he will use “quantitative easing” to prevent deflation points to a stock market rally that may last for the next two years, Napier said. With quantitative easing, a tool pioneered by the Bank of Japan, central banks can stimulate inflation by printing money and flooding the market with cash in order to encourage consumers to spend.

    The government’s efforts will eventually fail as ballooning government debt devalues the dollar, causes investors to flee U.S. assets and takes the S&P 500 to its eventual bottom in 2014, Napier said.

    “Bear markets always end for exactly the same reason, and that is the market begins to price in deflation,” he said. “Equities will be incredibly cheap.”

    December 10, 2008 01:21 EST

  5. #15
    Secondo il modello azionario Ford le azioni sono estremamente sottovalutate. Entro parecchi anni le azioni dovrebbero essere a prezzi molto più alti di quelli attuali. E entro fine anno si dovrebbe poter parlare di fondo già toccato

    Ford Equity's model shows stocks to be very undervalued
    By Mark Hulbert,
    11:20 p.m. EST Dec. 9, 2008

    ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- It is one of the ironies of stock-market timing that it is easier to forecast where the market will be in several years than where it will be in several days.
    And, according to a valuation model from a research firm with an excellent long-term record, the stock market is likely to be significantly higher in several years' time -- regardless of whether the final low of the last year's bear market has been seen.
    The firm in question is Ford Equity Research of San Diego. This firm is on my radar screen because it publishes a newsletter entitled Ford Equity Research Investment Review. And its market-timing model deserves to be on your radar screen because it has a good long-term record.
    Ford bases its model on an analysis of individual stocks' valuations. For each of several thousand issues, Ford calculates a so-called price-to-value ratio, which "is computed by dividing the price of a company's stock by the value derived from a proprietary intrinsic value model."
    According to Ford, "A [price-to-value ratio] greater than 1.00 indicates that a company is overpriced while a [ratio] less than 1.00 implies that a stock is trading below the level justified by its earnings, quality rating, dividends, projected growth rate, and prevailing interest rates." After calculating a price-to-value ratio for each of the several thousand stocks that it monitors, Ford calculates an overall average.
    Since 1970, when Ford started calculating the ratio, this average's record high level was 1.81, which it hit at the end of September 1987, three weeks prior to the worst crash in U.S. stock market history. Its second highest level, 1.79, was registered at the end of February 2000, just a couple of weeks prior to the bursting of the Internet bubble and the beginning of the 2000-2002 bear market.
    Today, this average stands at 0.68. That's the lowest since December 1974, when it got slightly lower, to 0.61. Other than that December 1974 reading, the current level of this average is the lowest since 1970, when Ford began calculating it.
    In addition, the current level is well below the four-decade average, which stands at 1.17.
    This would certainly appear to be good news for the stock market.
    "Market bottom by year-end":

  6. #16
    How David Rosenberg foresaw the crash
    Inspired by Robert Farrell and Charles Kindleberger

    Bloomberg News
    Published: Tuesday, December 30, 2008
    David Rosenberg drew on inspiration from market-rules theorist Robert Farrell and asset-bubble historian Charles Kindleberger to predict the economy's demise this year.

    Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York, by January had already called the recession that this month was officially declared to have started in December 2007. He also said the Federal Reserve would lower its main interest rate to 1% by year-end, one-third of the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News; by October, policy makers brought the rate to that level.

    Rosenberg, 48, refused to trust his computer models, sensing that the end of the credit and housing-market booms would cause a deeper rout than most analysts thought. Now, he predicts the carnage will cause a 2.5% contraction in gross domestic product in 2009, and sees historians calling the current era "GDII," a reference to the Great Depression.

    "We came off a prolonged period of prosperity that was fueled by excessive leverage and an asset bubble of historical proportions," Rosenberg said in an interview. "Either you believed that this was sustainable or you didn't. I came to the conclusion that this was going to end very badly."

    Rosenberg, a former Bank of Canada economist, projected in January that the U.S. economy would expand 1.6% this year, compared with a median estimate of 2.1% in a Bloomberg survey of 64 analysts. By the end of that month, he cut his forecast by more than half.

    'Key Metric'

    It all came down to the premise that the downturn in housing was going to have a lagged and severe impact on everything from economic growth to interest-rate spreads and stocks. Personal savings, Rosenberg's "key metric," would head higher as Americans tried to repair tattered finances resulting from the slumps in property values and stock prices.

    That's where Rosenberg differed from the majority in his profession, who he said were using terms like "contained" to describe the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, or "resilient" when talking about consumer spending, which had risen for a record 17 years.

    "You have to have your models, but you have to question the results," Rosenberg said. "You have to ask yourself: Where could the model be wrong this time? Bubbles go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," he said, quoting the fourth of "10 Market Rules to Remember," by former Merrill analyst Farrell.

    Farrell's Rules

    Farrell developed his "10 Market Rules" during a 25-year stint as chief strategist at Merrill until 1992. He won Institutional Investor magazine's award for overall stock market direction in 16 of 17 years, according to a Dec. 19, 1992, New York Times article.

    Rules one through four, which include the belief that markets always return to long-run averages and excesses in one direction are invariably followed by excesses in the opposite direction, are applicable to this decade's housing cycle, Rosenberg said.

    Farrell's rules "were a compass in terms of guiding me through the past three years," said Rosenberg, who joined Merrill in 2000 and holds master's and bachelor's degrees in economics from the University of Toronto. Rosenberg will remain at Merrill after Bank of America's takeover of the New York-based securities is completed on Jan. 1, according to spokeswoman Elana Mehas.

    Kindleberger's Manias

    Kindleberger, the late economic historian who taught for 33 years at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is famed for his 1978 book "Manias, Panics and Crashes." The work traced four centuries of boom-and-bust cycles, bringing to light a 17th century frenzy over Dutch tulips that sent investors offering land, houses, farm animals and gold in return for choice bulbs.

    The severity of today's housing bust, and the resulting collapse in credit, indicate that the U.S. won't soon emerge from the already year-long recession, according to Rosenberg.

    "What we know about periods of asset deflation and credit contraction is that the impact on the economy tends to last for years not quarters," he said, projecting housing is likely to contract through the end of 2009.

    Rosenberg was also among the few predicting a rally in U.S. Treasuries, which have posted their best year since 1995.

  7. #17
    Wall Street enjoys upbeat start to 2009

    NEW YORK: Wall Street started the new year with a big rally Friday, as investors, brushing aside a disappointing report on manufacturing, sent the Dow Jones industrials up more than 250 points and to their first close above 9,000 in two months.

    All the major indexes shot up more than six percent for the week.

    The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing activity index fell to the lowest level in 28 years in December.

    But the market held to its recent pattern of taking bad economic news in stride, a pattern that began to emerge after it touched multiyear lows on Nov. 20.

    Investors tend to look anywhere from three to nine months into the future when they make their moves.

    "Over the last month you've started to see a change in sentiment and this certainly advances that,'' said Carl Beck, partner at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Virginia.

    Economic data have been terrible for months and investors have shown little surprise even as some readings fell well short of economists' already low expectations.

    During past recessions, the market has recovered ahead of the economy by growing numb to a stream of poor data and looking for signs that the downturn isn't worsening.

    The ISM, a trade group of purchasing executives, said Friday its manufacturing index fell to 32.4 in December from 36.2 in November.

    Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading of 35.5; a figure below 50 indicates contraction.

    Wall Street's move higher comes amid light trading after the New Year's holiday.

    Modest volume can lend buoyancy to the market as upbeat buyers have reason to come out and those with less conviction stay home.

    The final session of the week follows a terrible year for investors.

    The Dow fell 33.8 percent in 2008, its worst performance since 1931.

    Still, the market's move higher was welcome.

    "We like to see the markets shrug off the bad news. That typically is a sign that we're forming a bottom,'' said Eric Thorne, an investment adviser at Bryn Mawr Trust.

    The Dow rose 258.30, or 2.94 percent, to 9,034.69, finishing the week up 6.1 percent.

    The blue chips last closed above 9,000 on Nov. 5, when they stood at 9,139.27.

    Like the Dow, broader stock indicators also advanced for the third straight session.

    The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 28.55 percent, or 3.16 percent, to 931.80, its highest close since Nov. 5.

    The Nasdaq composite index rose 55.18, or 3.50 percent, to 1,632.21.

    For the week, the S&P 500 finished up 6.8 percent, while the Nasdaq rose 6.7 percent. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 6.37, or 1.28 percent, to 505.82.

    Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a light 1.04 billion shares.

    Bond prices fell as investors took on riskier assets.

    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.40 percent from 2.22 percent late Wednesday.

    The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.09 percent from 0.08 percent Wednesday.

    Thorne contends 2009 could be a strong year for Wall Street because most investors are so shaken from the sell-off in 2008, which erased six years of gains in stocks.

    Market bottoms often emerge because investors are so pessimistic or because stocks seem incapable of making any sustained recovery.

    "A bottom isn't formed in one day or even in one month but probably over several months,'' he said.

    "Expectations are extremely low for the economy, for corporate earnings and for the stock market itself.''

    From Nov. 20 to the end of 2008, the Dow advanced 16.2 percent, while the S&P 500 rose 20 percent.

    "We're very confident that the $9 trillion that is in cash right now will look to find a home in better-performing assets,'' he said, referring to the amount of money invested in conservative but low-yielding areas like money market funds.

    Yields on safe investments like Treasurys have fallen to virtually nil as investors have clamored for safety and surrendered hopes of even earning a return on their money.

    Todd Leone, managing director at Cowen & Co., cautioned against reading too much into Friday's advance and said the first full week of the new year should provide insight into investor sentiment for 2009.

    "The first five days are usually very telling,'' Leone said. "I'm not sure we'll be up or down.''

    He said an advance in stocks Friday wasn't a surprise as some investors start the year by wading into the market.

    He said selling is more likely to occur next week.

    Investors had little corporate news to go on Friday other than the completion this week of some major banking acquisitions.

    Bank of America Corp. finalized its deal to acquire Merrill Lynch & Co. Wells Fargo & Co. closed its acquisition of Wachovia Corp., while PNC Financial Services Group Inc. bought National City Corp.

    The dealmaking came after the mortgage and credit turmoil torpedoed bank's balance sheets and sent banks' stocks tumbling.

    In some cases, banks grappling with liquidity shortages and rising loan losses were forced to make deals to remain in business.

    Next week brings a flurry of economic readings and potentially early comments from companies on their 2008 results and 2009 forecasts.

    A Labor Department report next Friday on December employment is expected to draw attention.

    A month ago, Wall Street showed newfound resiliency in the face of a bad reading on what is typically the most important economic report of the month.

    Stocks initially sagged but finished with big gains Dec. 5 after the government reported that employers slashed a larger-than-expected 533,000 jobs in November.

    Investors were hoping the poor report would prompt Washington to take broader steps to shore up the economy.

    "The employment numbers will almost undoubtedly be very ugly. What will be interesting to see is what the market's reaction will be to those numbers,'' said Thorne.

    "We're also very interested to see what the corporate earnings reporting season will be like.''

    migliori e peggiori S&P500 nel 2008
    venerdì, 2 gennaio 2009 11.51

    sabato 3 gennaio 2009 10.15.50

    Wall Street;Apre 2009 con rally,

    New York, 2 gen. (Apcom) - Wall Street ha cominciato il 2009 in forte rally, con gli investitori che hanno praticamente ignorato in dato negativo sull'attività manifatturiera degli Stati Uniti, facendo impennare gli indici e tornare il Dow Jones sopra quota 9.000 per la prima volta in due mesi. Per lo S&P500 è stato il miglior inizio dell'anno dal 2003.
    In mattinata l'Institute for Supply Management ha comunicato che l'attività manifatturiera del paese è scesa al livello minimo degli ultimi 28 anni in dicembre. Il mercato ha però proseguito sul tracciato di ripresa iniziato lo scorso 20 novembre, dopo un lungo periodo di perdite. Gli investitori dimostrano così una moderata fiducia per i prossimi sei-otto mesi, il periodo medio sui cui vengono basate le scommesse di investimento.
    "Ci piace vede i mercati che si scuotono di dosso le cattive notizie. E' tipicamente un segno che è stato raggiunto il fondo", ha detto Eric Thorne, un consulente della società Bryn Mawr Trust.

  8. #18
    December 16, 2008
    Bloomberg recently surveyed market strategists for their 2009 S&P 500 price targets, and collectively, they're looking for a gain of 21.8% from the index's current price level. As shown below, UBS is the most bullish of the group with a year-end 2009 price target of 1,300 (a 47.2% gain). UBS was the most bullish last year as well with a 2008 price target of 1,700.

    Goldman and Strategas are the second most bullish this year with price targets of 1,100. Credit Suisse has a target of 1,050 (for mid-year '09), Citi and HSBC are at 1,000, and Merrill Lynch is at 975. Merrill is the least bullish strategist of those surveyed, ...

  9. #19
    February 09, 2009 at 03:14 PM
    The New York Times published an article this weekend highlighting that the current 10-year stretch that ended last month was the worst for the S&P 500 in at least the last 82 years. The Times looked at total returns for the S&P 500, and below we provide a similar analysis of the 10-year rolling price change of the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back to 1910. As shown, there have only been four other periods where the 10-year return has been negative, and three of the four periods saw returns float around the negative to flat line for quite some time. While it may have taken "buy-and-holders" a few years to end up making money if they got in early when the 10-year returns went negative, they did end up making money.


  10. #20
    4:41 p.m. EST Feb. 17,
    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The S&P 500 Index on Tuesday fell below 800 for the first time in nearly three months, with the broad market testing November lows in what proved to be a pivotal trial that had a key support level holding.
    Financials, energy and industrials led declines that hit all 10 of the S&P 500's industry groups. The S&P500 fell 37.67 points, or 4.6%, to finish at 789.17, just above its 752.44 close on Nov. 20, when it ended at its lowest level since November of 2002.
    A break below 750 by the S&P "could morph into a full-blown crash scenario that may find a resting spot anywhere between 600 and 640, taking away roughly one-third of the gains from the 1982 lows. While possible, we are not yet putting too much weight on the outcome," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates.
    Tim Speiss, head of the wealth-management division at Eisner LLP, also downplayed the likelihood of the crash scenario, saying the market is now hanging on expectations that the Obama administration will deliver more than a sound bite Wednesday when it unveils a plan for restructuring troubled mortgages.
    "We could hit or surpass the November lows, but it will be temporary. Yeah, we could drop below 7,000 [on the Dow], but that means nothing," said Spies, who believes the blue-chip index was 20% to 25% overstated at its October 2007 highs of 14,000, and is undervalued at its current level.
    "The range should probably be 8,500 to 10,500 or 11,000," he added.
    On the S&P, "any decline below 750 [and] we will be stepping up our purchases of equities, as they would be valued at levels that have only been seen once or twice in more than 80 years," commented Nolte, who said February's finish could prove interesting. "Will moderation in the markets continue over the coming weeks, or will it be a race to the bottom?"


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